Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: June-August 2024 (JJA)
Issued: 24 May 2024
For JJA 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region.
For JJA 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region, apart from over the southernmost part of the Maritime Continent where below- to near-normal temperature is predicted by the UK Met Office (Figure 3). Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively good for most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JJA 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JJA 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for JJA 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for JJA 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for JJA based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.