Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: February 2025
Issued: 30 Jan 2025
For February 2025, below- to near-normal rainfall is predicted over the equatorial region, with above-normal rainfall is predicted over the rest of the Maritime Continent.
For February 2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All models predict above-normal rainfall for much of the Maritime Continent (Figures 1-3), with the NCEP model also predicts below-normal rainfall over parts of Sumatra, western Borneo and Sulawesi (Figure 1), while the ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3) predict below- to near-normal rainfall over the southern half of Sumatra, southern Borneo, Sulawesi and much of Papua. Model skill is low to moderate over most of the region, except for over the Philippines where the model skill is overall good.
Over Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal rainfall is predicted over the southeastern parts of the region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), although this is the dry season for this region (Figure 6) and the rainfall anomalies are predicted to be small. Elsewhere in the region, the models disagree on the dominant tercile rainfall. For above-normal rainfall over the southeastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia the model skill is moderate.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for February 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for February 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for February 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for January 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for February based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for February based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.