Rainfall

For April 2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the northern ASEAN region and southeastern Maritime Continent based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). For the northern ASEAN region, the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) shows the highest confidence of the above-normal rainfall over central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines, followed by the ECMWF model (Figure 2), and the NCEP model (Figure 1).For the southeastern Maritime Continent, the ECMWF and UK Met Office models show high confidence of above-normal rainfall. For above-normal rainfall over the northern ASEAN region, models’ skill is moderate to good for the ECMWF and UK Met Office models, and low to moderate for the NCEP model. The model skill for above-normal rainfall over southeastern Maritime continent is low to moderate for the ECMWF and UK Met Office models and low for the NCEP model.

Below-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of the western equatorial region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts below-normal rainfall over these regions with highest likelihood and extent, followed by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) and the ECMWF (Figure 2). The models’ skill is generally low to moderate for the below-normal rainfall for the central equatorial region.