Rainfall

For November 2024, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the exception over the western Maritime Continent where a mix of below- to above-normal rainfall is predicted. For above-normal rainfall in the Maritime Continent, the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) shows the highest confidence for the southern region, while the NCEP model shows the highest confidence for the northeastern region. The models’ skill for the Maritime Continent region is moderate to good for predicting above-normal rainfall for much of the region, with low to moderate for predicting rainfall over the western Maritime Continent.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal rainfall is predicted over the southeastern coastal region and below-normal rainfall is predicted over the central and northeastern regions, with no dominant tercile elsewhere, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models predict above-normal rainfall over the southeastern coastal region. Elsewhere, the ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3) predict below-normal rainfall for much of the rest of the region, while the NCEP model predict below-normal rainfall just for the northeastern part. Model skill is generally low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia region at this time of the year, except for predicting above-normal rainfall over the southeastern coastal region where model skill is moderate to high.