Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: November 2025
Issued: 24 Oct 2025
For November 2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted over the southern and eastern Maritime Continent and much of Mainland Southeast Asia.
For November 2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted over most of the southern and eastern Maritime Continent based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1), with below-normal rainfall over parts of the northwestern and central regions. Most models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal rainfall as the dominant tercile for the southern and eastern regions. In general, at least four out of the nine models predict below-normal rainfall over the northwestern Maritime Continent and northern Borneo.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the region. Most of the region has at least some models (4 – 6) predicting above-normal rainfall, with the southeastern and northwestern regions having most models (more than six models) predicting above-normal rainfall.
Model skill is good for predicting above-normal rainfall over the southern and northeastern Maritime Continent and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia. Model skill is low to moderate elsewhere in Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for November 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for September 2025. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for November based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for November based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.