Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: January-March 2025 (JFM)
Issued: 7 Jan 2025
For JFM 2025, near- or above-normal temperature is predicted for Southeast Asia.
For JFM 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted for much of Southeast Asia, except for eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). For eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines, the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts near-normal temperature, while the ECMWF and UK Met Office Models (Figures 2 and 3) predict near- to above-normal temperature. Model skill for above-normal temperature is relatively good for the Maritime Continent and moderate to good for Mainland Southeast Asia. For near-normal temperature, model skill is generally low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JFM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JFM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for JFM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for JFM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.