Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: July-September 2025 (JAS)
Issued: 24 Jun 2025
For JAS 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia.
For JAS 2025, an increase in chance of above-normal temperature is predicted for Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). The probability of above-normal temperature is high for most of the region. Most models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for most of Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for JAS 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for JAS 2025. Where there no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.