Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: December 2025 - February 2026 (DJF)
Issued: 28 Nov 2025
For DJF 2025-2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent, with near-normal temperature predicted for central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For DJF 2025-2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent as well as northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia. Most models (more than six models) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile over most of the Maritime Continent and northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for most of Southeast Asia.
A mix of near-normal temperature and no dominant tercile is predicted over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 1). There is less agreement between models for the region predicting near-normal temperature. Model skill is generally moderate for predicting near-normal temperature for the mention region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for DJF 2025-2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for DJF 2025-2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.