Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: March-May 2025 (MAM)
Issued: 3 Mar 2025
For MAM 2025, near- to above-normal temperature is predicted for the Maritime Continent and western Mainland Southeast Asia.
For MAM 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted for the Maritime Continent and western Mainland Southeast Asia, with near-normal temperature predicted for central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). For the Maritime Continent, all models agree on above-normal temperature for the region, apart from over northern Philippines where the ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3) predict above-normal temperature while the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts near- to above-normal temperature. The ECMWF and UK Met Office models predict near-normal temperature over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia while the NCEP model predicts near- to above-normal for the mentioned region. Model skill for above-normal temperature is relatively good for the Maritime Continent and Mainland Southeast Asia. For near-normal temperature over Mainland Southeast Asia, model skill is generally low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MAM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MAM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for MAM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for MAM 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.