Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: February-April 2025 (FMA)
Issued: 30 Jan 2025
For FMA 2025, near- or above-normal temperature is predicted for much of Southeast Asia.
For FMA 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted for much of Southeast Asia, except for eastern Mainland Southeast Asia based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). For eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, all models predict near-normal temperature (Figures 1-3). For the Maritime Continent, all models agree on above-normal temperature for the region, apart from over the Philippines, where the ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3) predict above-normal temperature, while the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts near-normal temperature. Model skill for above-normal temperature is relatively good for the Maritime Continent and Mainland Southeast Asia. For near-normal temperature, model skill is generally low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for FMA 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for FMA 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for FMA 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for FMA 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for FMA based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.