Temperature

For NDJ 2024-2025, above-normal temperature is predicted for much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble, apart from over parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia where near-normal temperature is predicted (Figure 4). All three models (NCEP, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office, Figures 1 - 3) agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent and western Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere for Mainland Southeast Asia, the ECMWF model predicts above-normal temperature for much of the region, the UK Met Office model predicts a mix of near- and above-normal temperature, while the NCEP model predicts below- to near-normal temperature. The model skill for predicting below- and above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good for much of the region, except for northern Mainland Southeast Asia where the model skill is low to moderate. 

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.