Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: January 2025

Issued: 7 Jan 2025

For January 2025, near or above-normal temperature is predicted for Southeast Asia

For January 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted based on the multi-model ensemble for most of the Maritime Continent (Figure 4). All three models agree on above-normal temperature over the Maritime Continent apart from over the Philippines, although the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts above-normal temperature with a lower confidence compared to the ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3). Model skill is relatively good for the Maritime Continent.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, near-normal temperature is predicted for the eastern region with above-normal temperature predicted elsewhere, for all the three models (Figures 1 – 3). Model skill is low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia at this time of year. 

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Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for January 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for January 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for January 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for January 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.