Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: January 2025
Issued: 7 Jan 2025
For January 2025, near or above-normal temperature is predicted for Southeast Asia
For January 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted based on the multi-model ensemble for most of the Maritime Continent (Figure 4). All three models agree on above-normal temperature over the Maritime Continent apart from over the Philippines, although the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts above-normal temperature with a lower confidence compared to the ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3). Model skill is relatively good for the Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, near-normal temperature is predicted for the eastern region with above-normal temperature predicted elsewhere, for all the three models (Figures 1 – 3). Model skill is low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia at this time of year.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for January 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for January 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for January 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for January 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).