Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: November 2024
Issued: 31 Oct 2024
For November 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region.
For November 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the exception for parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia with near-normal temperature predicted. All three models (NCEP, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office) agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over the Maritime Continent (Figures 1 – 3). For Mainland Southeast Asia, the ECMWF and UK Met Office models predicts above-normal temperature for much of the region with higher likelihood over the northwestern region, while the NCEP model (Figure 1) predict above-normal temperature for the western region and a mix of below- to near-normal temperature for the rest of the region. The model skill is relatively good for predicting above-normal temperature over the southern ASEAN region and moderate to good over most of the northern ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for November 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for November 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for November 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for November 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.