Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: March 2025
Issued: 3 Mar 2025
For March 2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted over the northern half of the ASEAN region.
For March 2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the northern half of the ASEAN region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). For the Maritime Continent, the ECMWF and UK Met Office models predict above-normal rainfall over the eastern Maritime Continent with a mix of below- to above-normal rainfall elsewhere, while the NCEP model predicts above-normal rainfall over the northern half of the Maritime Continent and below-normal rainfall for the southern half. Model skill is low to moderate over most of the region, except for over the Philippines where the model skill is overall good.
Over Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), although this is the dry season for this region (Figure 6) and the rainfall anomalies are predicted to be small. For above-normal rainfall over the southeastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia the model skill is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for March 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for March 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for March 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for March 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for March based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for March based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.