Long-range Forecasting

Bulletins

YEAR

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YEAR

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Bulletin

09 DEC 2024

ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

Twenty Third Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-23)

The Twenty-third session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-23) was organised by the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Lao PDR, RIMES, the ASEANCOF Working Group, and WMO. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter monsoon 2024/2025 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the December-January-February (DJF) 2024/2025 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from ASEAN NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. The theme of ASEANCOF-23 was Agriculture and Climate Services. On the last day of ASEANCOF-23, a sharing session was held which included updates from ASEANCOF-22 around the use of climate services for agriculture. 

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Bulletin

05 JUN 2024

ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

Twenty Second Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-22)

The Twenty-Second session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-22) was organised by the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Lao PDR, RIMES, the ASEANCOF Working Group, and WMO. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2024 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the June-July-August (JJA) 2024 outlook was achieved through a hybrid session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. There was also two-day pre-COF training, conducted by the UK Met Office under the WISER Asia Pacific project and RIMES. The theme of ASEANCOF-22 was Agriculture and Climate Services, with a focus on drought. On the last day of ASEANCOF-22, a sharing session was held which included presentations from UN ESCAP, FAO, and WFP, as well as di...

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Bulletin

30 NOV 2023

ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

Twenty First Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-21)

The Twenty-First session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-21) was organised by Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) in collaboration with ASMC and the ASEANCOF Working Group. ASEANCOF-21 marked 10 years since the first ASEANCOF was held in December 2013. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter monsoon 2023/2024 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the December-January-February (DJF) 2023/2024 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. The theme of ASEANCOF-21 was ‘The Future of Climate Services in Southeast Asia’’.

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Bulletin

01 JUN 2023

ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

Twentieth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-20)

The Twentieth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-20) was organised by ASMC and the ASEANCOF Working Group. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2023 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the June-July-August (JJA) 2023 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. In particular, ASEANCOF considered the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia. The theme of ASEANCOF-20 was ‘Advances in climate services on subseasonal to seasonal timescales’.

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Bulletin

28 MAR 2023

ASMC

ASMC Climate Bulletin (Mar 2023)

July – December 2022 Climate Review

  • An Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in Q3 of 2022 with continued La Niña conditions in the second half of 2022.

March to August 2023 Climate Outlook

  • La Niña conditions likely to transition into ENSO neutral by Q2 2023.
  • Above-normal rainfall is predicted over northern Maritime Continent and much of Mainland Southeast Asia, with below-normal rainfall predicted over much of southern half of the Maritime Continent.

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Bulletin

30 NOV 2022

ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

Nineteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-19)

The Nineteenth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-19) was organised by Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) in collaboration with ASMC and the ASEANCOF Working Group. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter monsoon 2022-2023 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the December-January-February (DJF) 2022-2023 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different Global Producing Centres (GPCs), NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. The theme of ASEANCOF-19 was climate services for agriculture. On the last day of ASEANCOF-19, a webinar was held involving both producers and users of seasonal outlooks, including presentations on using climate services for agriculture.

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Bulletin

04 OCT 2022

ASMC

ASMC Bulletin (Issue #10, Sep 2022)

Contents of Issue #10:

  • Climate Review (January – June 2022): La Niña event persisted in the first half of 2022
  • Regional Fire and Haze Situation (January – June 2022): Persistent dry conditions and transboundary smoke haze over the Mekong sub-region
  • Climate and Haze Outlook (September 2022 – February 2023): Negative IOD until November and La Niña likely to persist for the rest of this year
  • Significant weather events in Southeast Asia articles from NCHMF, PAGASA, BDMD and TMD
  • ASMC events: ASEANCOF-18

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Bulletin

03 JUN 2022

ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

Eighteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-18)

The Eighteenth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-18) was organised by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in collaboration with the ASMC and the ASEANCOF Working Group. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2022 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for June-July-August (JJA) 2022 outlook was achieved through an online session. There was also a special focus on monsoon variability, with a presentation from the Regional Working Group on Asian-Australian Monsoon (AAM-WG).

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