Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: February 2025
Issued: 30 Jan 2025
For February 2025, near or above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the Maritime Continent and western Mainland Southeast Asia.
For February 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over most parts of the Maritime Continent, except for over the Malay Peninsula, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree on above-normal temperature over the eastern and southwestern Maritime Continent (Figures 1-3), while only the UK Met Office model (Figure 2) also predicts above-normal temperature over the Malay Peninsula. The NCEP model (Figure 1) shows disagreement with other models also over parts of the southern Maritime Continent and the Philippines where it predicts near-normal temperature, while the UK Met Office and ECMWF modes (Figures 2 and 3) predict above-normal temperature over most of these regions. Model skill is relatively good for the Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal temperature is predicted for the western region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with a disagreement between the models on the dominant tercile elsewhere (Figures 1 – 3). Model skill is moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia at this time of year.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for February 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for February 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for February 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for February 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.