Temperature

For December 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region. For the Maritime Continent, above-normal temperature is predicted based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree on above-normal temperature over the Maritime Continent, especially for the ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3) predicting with high confidence over most of the region and followed by the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicting with high confidence over the equatorial region.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, near-normal temperature is predicted for the eastern region with above-normal temperature predicted elsewhere, based on the multi-model ensemble. The NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts below-normal temperature over northeastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia with the largest extent of near-normal temperature over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, followed by the ECMWF model with near-normal temperature predicted over the southeastern region, then the UK Met Office model for the northeastern region.  Models’ skill is moderate to good for predicting below- and above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region, except northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia with low models’ skill.