Temperature

For March 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over most parts of the Maritime Continent, except for over the Malay Peninsula and northern half of the Philippines, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree on above-normal temperature over the eastern and central Maritime Continent (Figures 1-3), with the ECMWF and UK Met Office models also predicting above-normal temperature much of the western region. The NCEP model (Figure 1) shows disagreement with other models also over parts of the southwestern Maritime Continent where it predicts near- to above-normal temperature. Model skill is relatively good for the Maritime Continent.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal temperature is predicted for the western region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with below- to near-normal temperature elsewhere. All three models predict above-normal temperature over the western region, with the NCEP model predicting above-normal temperature also over the eastern half, where the other two models predicting below- to near-normal temperature. Model skill is moderate to good for Mainland Southeast Asia at this time of year.