Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: May-July 2024 (MJJ)
Issued: 30 Apr 2024
For MJJ 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region.
For MJJ 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region, apart from over the southwestern Maritime Continent where near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted by the ECMWF and UKMO models (Figures 2 and 3). Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is good over most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MJJ 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MJJ 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for MJJ 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for MJJ 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for MJJ based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.