Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: July-September 2024 (JAS)
Issued: 30 Jun 2024
For JAS 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia.
For JAS 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region. Lower confidence of above-normal temperature is predicted over parts of Borneo and Papua by the NCEP model (Figure 1), over the southernmost part of the Maritime Continent by the ECMWF model (Figure 2), and over the southwestern part of the Maritime Continent by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3). Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively good for most of Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JAS 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JAS 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for JAS 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for JAS 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for JAS based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.