Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: August-October 2024 (ASO)
Issued: 31 Jul 2024
For ASO 2024, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
For ASO 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models (Figures 1, 2 and 3) agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region. The NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2) predict near- normal temperatures over parts of southern Borneo. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for ASO 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for ASO 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for ASO 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for ASO 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for ASO based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.