Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: September-November (SON) 2024
Issued: 26 Aug 2024
For SON 2024, near- to above-normal or above-normal temperature is predicted for the ASEAN region.
For SON 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble, apart from over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia where near- to above-normal temperature is predicted (Figure 4). All three models (NCEP, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office, Figures 1 - 3) agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent and Myanmar. Elsewhere, near-to above-normal temperature is predicted. The model skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for SON 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for SON 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for SON 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for SON 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for SON based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.