Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: September 2024
Issued: 26 Aug 2024
For September 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region.
For September 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models (NCEP, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office) agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of Mainland Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent (Figures 1 – 3). The model skill is relatively good for predicting above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for September 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for September 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for September 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for September 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for September based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.