Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: August 2024
Issued: 31 Jul 2024
For August 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region.
For August 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over Mainland Southeast Asia and most of the Maritime Continent. However, the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts above-normal temperature over western Borneo with lower confidence compared to the rest of the ASEAN region, with the ECMWF model (Figure 2) predicting above-normal temperature at lower confidence over parts of the southern Maritime Continent. Models’ skill is relatively good for predicting above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for August 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for August 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for August 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for August 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.