Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: August 2024

Issued: 31 Jul 2024

For August 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region.

For August 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over Mainland Southeast Asia and most of the Maritime Continent. However, the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts above-normal temperature over western Borneo with lower confidence compared to the rest of the ASEAN region, with the ECMWF model (Figure 2) predicting above-normal temperature at lower confidence over parts of the southern Maritime Continent. Models’ skill is relatively good for predicting above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.

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Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for August 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for August 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for August 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for August 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for August based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.