Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: July 2024
Issued: 30 Jun 2024
For July 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia.
For July 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region. The NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts pockets of near-normal temperature over the western and central equatorial region, while the ECMWF model (Figure 2) predicts near-normal temperature for the southernmost part of the Maritime Continent. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good over much of Southeast Asia, except for northern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia with moderate to good model skill.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for July 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for July 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for July 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for July 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for July based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.