Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: October 2024
Issued: 30 Sep 2024
For October 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region.
For October 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models (NCEP, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office) agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of Mainland Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent (Figures 1 – 3). The model skill is relatively good for predicting above-normal temperature over the southern ASEAN region and moderate to good over most of the northern ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for October 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for October 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for October 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for October 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.