Rainfall

For SON 2024, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the Maritime Continent, with the highest likelihood on the eastern half of the region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models (NCEP, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office, Figures 13), predict above-normal rainfall over the Maritime Continent east of 120°E. The ECMWF and UK Met Office models predict near-normal or near- to above-normal rainfall for the rest of the Maritime Continent, while the NCEP model predicted below- or near-normal rainfall. Model skill is relatively good for below- and above-normal rainfall over much of the Maritime Continent, except for over western Maritime Continent where model skill is low to moderate.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, all three models (NCEP, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office) predict near- to above-normal rainfall over central and southern parts of the region (Figure 1 – 3). For northern Mainland Southeast Asia, the UK Met Office model predicts near- to above-normal rainfall, the ECMWF model predicts a mix of below- to above-normal rainfall, and the NCEP model predicts predominately below-normal or no dominant tercile. The model skill is low to moderate over southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, and low elsewhere.