Rainfall

For OND 2024, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the Maritime Continent, with the highest likelihood on the eastern half of the region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models (NCEP, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office, Figures 1 – 3), predict above-normal rainfall over the central and eastern Maritime Continent, with the UK Met Office model shows the highest certainty, followed by the ECMWF and NCEP models. For the western parts the models predict no dominant tercile or near-normal rainfall. Model skill is relatively good for above-normal rainfall over much of the Maritime Continent, and low for near-normal rainfall over western Maritime Continent.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, no dominant tercile rainfall is predicted, except for the eastern parts of the region where a slight increase in chance of above-normal rainfall is predicted. For the eastern and central parts of the region, the ECMWF and UK Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3) predict above-normal rainfall, while the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts mostly no dominant tercile. For northern Mainland Southeast Asia, the UK Met Office model predicts near- to above-normal rainfall, the ECMWF model predicts a mix of below- to above-normal rainfall, and the NCEP model predicts predominately below-normal or no dominant tercile. The model skill is low to moderate over southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, and low elsewhere.