Rainfall

Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: November 2024 - January 2025 (NDJ)

Issued: 31 Oct 2024

For NDJ 2024-2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the southern and eastern Maritime Continent. 

For NDJ 2024-2025, above-normal rainfall is predicted for the southern and eastern Maritime Continent with below-normal rainfall over parts of the western half of the equatorial region, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models (NCEP, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office, Figures 1 – 3), predict above-normal rainfall over the southern and eastern Maritime Continent, with the UK Met Office model shows the highest likelihood. There is disagreement among the models for the rest of the Maritime Continent, with NCEP model predicting below-normal rainfall, ECMWF model predicting mix of below- to above-normal rainfall, while the UK Met Office model predicting near- to above-normal rainfall. Model skill is relatively good for above-normal rainfall over much of the Maritime Continent, and low for the western Maritime Continent. 

For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal rainfall is predicted for the southeastern coastal region and below-normal rainfall is predicted for the northeastern region. While the NCEP and UK Met Office models (Figure 1 and 3) agree on the mentioned regions, the ECMWF model (Figure 2) agrees only on above-normal rainfall over the southeastern coastal region. Elsewhere, there is either no dominant tercile or disagreement among the models. The model skill is generally moderate over the eastern coastal region of Mainland Southeast Asia, and low elsewhere. 
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Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for NDJ 2024-2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for NDJ 2024-2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for NDJ 2024-2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for NDJ 2024-2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for NDJ based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
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Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for NDJ based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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