Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: September 2020
Issued: 31 Aug 2020
For September 2020, models predict above-normal rainfall mainly over central and eastern parts of the equatorial region of Southeast Asia.
For September 2020, above-normal rainfall is predicted over central and eastern parts of the equatorial region in all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1 – 3). The skill is relatively good for the three models for the above-normal category. Two of the models (NCEP and UK Met Office) also predict above-normal rainfall tercile for the band around 10°N, however, the skill is low for this region.
For the rest of Southeast Asia, there is either disagreement between the models (western Maritime Continent) or the skill is low for this time of year.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for September 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for September 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for September 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of multi-model ensemble model for September 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.