Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: October 2020
Issued: 28 Sep 2020
For October 2020, models predict above-normal rainfall over parts of the Maritime Continent.
For October 2020, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much southern Southeast Asia (south of the equator) in two of the models – ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 2 and 3), while the third model – NCEP (Figure 1) predicts near- to above-normal rainfall. The skill is relatively good for the ECMWF and UK Met Office models for the southern Maritime Continent, indicating an overall increase likelihood for above-normal rainfall for this region. All three models agree with the above-normal rainfall as the dominant tercile for the Philippines, however the skill is low to moderate for this region for all three models.
For regions north of the equator in Southeast Asia, apart from the Philippines, there is either disagreement between the models or the skill is low for this time of year.
For regions north of the equator in Southeast Asia, apart from the Philippines, there is either disagreement between the models or the skill is low for this time of year.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for October 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for October 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for October 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of multi-model ensemble model for October 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for October based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1981-2010).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for October based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1981-2010).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.