Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: May 2020
Issued: 27 Apr 2020
For May 2020, below-normal rainfall is predicted for much of northern Southeast Asia, while above-normal rainfall is predicted for the southern half of Southeast Asia.
For May 2020, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office – predict an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for most parts of Southeast Asia north of 10°N (Figures 1-3). However, one of the three models – NCEP CFSv2 (Figure 1) – predicts a lower probability of drier conditions over southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines. Model skill for the Southeast Asia north of 10°N is moderate to relatively high.
In the southern half of Southeast Asia, all three models predict an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for much of the region, with the ECMWF and UK Met Office models predicting the highest likelihood. The corresponding skill scores are low to moderate for this region, although the ECMWF model has slightly higher skill for this region at this time of year.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for May 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for May 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for May 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of multi-model ensemble model for May 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).