Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: July 2020
Issued: 29 Jun 2020
For July 2020, above-normal rainfall is favoured for most of equatorial Southeast Asia spanning from 10°N to 10°S. Elsewhere, predictions either are not consistent across models, or have low skill.
For July 2020, two models – ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 2, 3) – favour an increased chance of above-normal rainfall conditions around the equatorial region of Southeast Asia (spanning from 10°N to 10°S), while the NCEP CFSv2 model (Figure 1) predicts the increased chance of above-normal rainfall conditions further north (5°N to 10°N).
The regions where above-normal rainfall conditions are predicted by ECMWF and UK Met Office models, broadly coincide with areas of moderate to relatively high model skill.
Elsewhere, the models show inconsistent forecasts or have low skill.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for July 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for July 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for July 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of multi-model ensemble model for July 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).