Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: January 2020
Issued: 30 Dec 2019
For January 2020, for most of Southeast Asia, predictions either are not consistent across models, or have low skill. However, there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for parts of eastern Indonesia.
For January 2020, two models – NCEP CFSv2 and the UK Met Office (Figures 1, 3) favour an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for equatorial regions such as Sulawesi and Papua, while no dominant tercile is predicted by the ECMWF model (Figure 2). The UK Met Office model suggests the wet region to extend further westwards to equatorial Borneo. This region where above-normal rainfall conditions are predicted broadly coincides with areas of low to moderate model skill. The area with the highest skill for this month is around the Philippines, but there is no dominant tercile predicted for this region from the models.
Elsewhere, the models show inconsistent forecasts or have limited skill.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for January 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for January 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for January 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of multi-model ensemble model for January 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).