Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: December 2019
Issued: 29 Nov 2019
For December 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over most parts of the region south of the equator. Elsewhere, predictions either are not consistent across models, or have low skill.
For December 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – favour an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for parts of Southeast Asia south of the equator. This region where below-normal rainfall conditions are predicted broadly coincide with areas of moderate to high model skill. Another area with good skill for this month is around the Philippines but there is no dominant tercile predicted for this region from the models.
Elsewhere, the models show inconsistent forecasts or have limited skill.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for December 2019.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for December 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for December 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of multi-model ensemble model for December 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.