Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: November 2024 - January 2025 (NDJ)
Issued: 31 Oct 2024
For NDJ 2024-2025, near-normal temperature is predicted over-eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, with above-normal temperature predicted elsewhere.
For NDJ 2024-2025, above-normal temperature is predicted for much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble, apart from over parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia where near-normal temperature is predicted (Figure 4). All three models (NCEP, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office, Figures 1 - 3) agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent and western Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere for Mainland Southeast Asia, the ECMWF model predicts above-normal temperature for much of the region, the UK Met Office model predicts a mix of near- and above-normal temperature, while the NCEP model predicts below- to near-normal temperature. The model skill for predicting below- and above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good for much of the region, except for northern Mainland Southeast Asia where the model skill is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for NDJ 2024-2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for NDJ 2024-2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for NDJ 2024-2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for NDJ 2024-2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for NDJ based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.