Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: December 2024 - February 2025 (DJF)
Issued: 29 Nov 2024
For DJF 2024/2025, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over much of the ASEAN region.
For DJF 2024/2025, above-normal temperature is predicted for much of the ASEAN region, except for parts of the eastern Mainland Southeast Asia where near-normal temperature is predicted, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the southern and northwestern ASEAN region. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal and near-to-above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good for much of the region, apart from western half of Mainland Southeast Asia with low to moderate model skill.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for DJF 2024/2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for DJF 2024/2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for DJF 2024/2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for DJF 2024/2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for DJF based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.