Rainfall

For March 2024, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the southern ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The UK Met Office model (Figure 3) shows the highest confidence for above-normal rainfall over the central Maritime Continent, while the NCEP model (Figure 1) shows the largest extent of above-normal rainfall. For above-normal rainfall over the southern ASEAN region, models’ skill is moderate to good for the ECMWF and UK Met Office models, and low to moderate for the NCEP model.

Below-normal rainfall is predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The ECMWF (Figure 2) and UK Met Office (Figure 3) models show the highest likelihood for below-normal rainfall over the Philippines and northern Borneo, while the NCEP model (Figure 1) has a lower chance of below-normal rainfall, primarily around the Philippines. The models’ skill is good for the northeastern Maritime Continent.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, all three models (Figures 1-3) predict below-normal rainfall over the western parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, but with low confidence and disagreement on the spatial extent. While the ECMWF model (Figure 2) predicts below-normal rainfall over parts of southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, the NCEP and UK Met Office models (Figures 1 and 3) predict near-normal rainfall or no dominant tercile. The models’ skill is generally low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia.