Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: January 2024
Issued: 29 Dec 2023
For January 2024, above-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of the equatorial region, and below-normal rainfall over the northeastern and southern Maritime Continent.
For January 2024, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the equatorial region (Figure 4). However, it is the dry season for Mainland Southeast Asia. The NCEP model (Figure 1) has the largest extent and confidence of above-normal rainfall, followed by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) and the ECMWF model (Figure 2). Models’ skill for above-normal rainfall is low to moderate for mentioned regions.
Below-normal rainfall is predicted over the southern and northeastern Maritime Continent, with highest likelihood over the Philippines based on the multimodel ensemble (Figure 4). The ECMWF and the UK models show larger extent and higher confidence for below-normal rainfall (Figures 2 and 3) as compared to the NCEP model (Figure 1). Models’ skill is moderate to good skill for northeastern Maritime Continent whereas low to moderate for the southern Maritime continent for below-normal rainfall.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for January 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for January 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for January 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for January 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for January based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for January based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.