Bulletin
04 OCT 2022
ASMC
ASMC Bulletin (Issue #10, Sep 2022)
Summary
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In the first half of 2022,
- La Niña conditions were present throughout.
- Signs of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) developing from May 2022.
- Wetter-than-normal weather was recorded over much of Southeast Asia.
- Persistent dry conditions and transboundary smoke haze were observed over Mekong sub-region.
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Over Southeast Asia,
- Heavy rain fell over central Viet Nam during the traditional dry season (March – April 2022).
- Tropical cyclones in April and June over the Philippines showed influence by El Niño Southern Oscillation.
- A two-day spell of widespread rainfall caused floods at Brunei Darussalam in March 2022.
- Polar vortex brought below-normal temperature over Thailand in early April 2022.
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For September 2022 till February 2023,
- La Niña is predicted to continue until end 2022 and return to neutral by January 2023.
- IOD is likely to persist in negative phase but to weaken towards end 2022.
- Models indicate an enhanced chance of above-normal rainfall (wetter) conditions over Southeast Asia. Wetter conditions for the southern ASEAN region are expected to set in from October 2022.
- Onset of Northeast Monsoon by end 2022 signals the start of dry season over Mekong sub-region.
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ASMC Regional Capability-Building Programme (ACaP):
- 18th ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-18) held in May 2022
- Upcoming: ASMC Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop (February 2023)
- Upcoming: Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods – Module 3 (WPNM-M3) Workshop (February 2023)
Climate Review (January – June 2022): La Niña event persisted in the first half of 2022
Regional Fire and Haze Situation (January – June 2022): Persistent dry conditions and transboundary smoke haze over the Mekong sub-region
Climate and Haze Outlook (September 2022 – February 2023): Negative IOD until November and La Niña likely to persist for the rest of this year
Significant weather events in Southeast Asia
ASMC events: ASEANCOF-18