Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: June 2024
Issued: 24 May 2024
For June 2024, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the eastern half of the equatorial region, with below-normal predicted for much of the southern Maritime Continent.
For June 2024, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the central and eastern parts of the equatorial region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The ECMWF model (Figure 2) shows the highest confidence of above-normal rainfall across this region, followed by UK Met Office model (Figure 3), and the NCEP model (Figure 1). For above-normal rainfall over the equatorial region, models’ skill is moderate to good for the ECMWF and UK Met Office models, and low to moderate for the NCEP model.
Below-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent and the Philippines based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The UK Met Office model (Figure 3) has the highest confidence for below-normal rainfall over the southern Maritime Continent and the Philippines, followed by the ECMWF model (Figure 2). The NCEP model (Figure 1) agrees with drier conditions over the southern Maritime Continent, but not for the Philippines. The models’ skill for below-normal rainfall is overall moderate over the southern Maritime Continent and the Philippines.
Elsewhere, either no dominant tercile is predicted (most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and the western equatorial region) or model skill is low (southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia).
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for June 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for June 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for June 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for June 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for June based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for June based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.