Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: July 2022
Issued: 30 Jun 2022
For July 2022, models predict above-normal rainfall over much of the southern ASEAN region.
For July 2022, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region, with highest likelihood over southern Maritime Continent (Figure 4). The exceptions include parts of the western Maritime Continent where no dominant tercile is predicted. The models’ skill is moderate to high for above-normal rainfall over the southern ASEAN region, with the highest skill over the southern Maritime Continent. Over the western Maritime Continent, the models’ skill is low.
For the northern ASEAN region, below-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the region between 10°N to 20°N based on the multi-model ensemble, with highest likelihood of drier conditions over southern Myanmar (Figure 4). Above-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of northern Mainland Southeast Asia, while no dominant tercile predicted over the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia. The models’ skill for all three terciles is low for most of the northern ASEAN region, although it is low to moderate for coastal parts of southern Myanmar.
For the northern ASEAN region, below-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the region between 10°N to 20°N based on the multi-model ensemble, with highest likelihood of drier conditions over southern Myanmar (Figure 4). Above-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of northern Mainland Southeast Asia, while no dominant tercile predicted over the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia. The models’ skill for all three terciles is low for most of the northern ASEAN region, although it is low to moderate for coastal parts of southern Myanmar.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for July 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for July 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for July 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for July 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for July based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for July based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.