Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: February 2022
Issued: 31 Jan 2022
For February 2022, there is an increase in chance of above-normal rainfall over much of the Maritime Continent and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For February 2022, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models predict above-normal rainfall for the Maritime Continent, apart from over the Philippines and the region around southern Sumatra and southern Borneo, with the NCEP (Figure 1) and ECMWF models (Figure 2) predict a higher likelihood of above-normal rainfall compared to the UKMO model (Figure 3). The models’ skill is moderate to relatively good for northern half of the Maritime continent, and low to moderate for the southern half.
Over Mainland Southeast Asia, all three models predict an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, with the NCEP model also predicted above-normal rainfall over central and western parts as well. While there is reasonable agreement among the models for above-normal rainfall, as this is the dry time of the year, any increase in rainfall is not expected to be large (see Figure 6 for the above-normal rainfall climatological threshold). The models’ skill is also generally low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia for this time of the year.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for February 2022.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for February 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for February 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for February 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for February based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for February based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.