Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: February 2021
Issued: 31 Jan 2021
For February 2021, models predict above-normal rainfall over the Philippines, northern Borneo, and southern parts of Viet Nam and Cambodia.
For February 2021, above-normal rainfall is predicted over the Philippines, northern Borneo, southern parts of Viet Nam and Cambodia as see in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The ECMWF (Figure 2) and the UK Met Office models (Figure 3) predict a larger region with above-normal rainfall, extending further west to include southern Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia, and parts of Sumatra, while there is no dominant tercile predicted by the NCEP model (Figure 1). The model’s skill is moderate to relatively good for the Philippines and northern Borneo, with low to moderate skill over southern Viet Nam, southern Cambodia, Malay Peninsula, and Sumatra.
While all three models predict above-normal rainfall for the southern part of the Maritime Continent, the model skill for these regions is generally low. For the rest of Southeast Asia, there is either disagreement between the models or the skill is low for this time of year.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for February 2021.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for February 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for February 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for February 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for February based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1981-2010).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for February based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1981-2010).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.