Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the central equatorial region and the southern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (25 November – 1 December). Wetter conditions are predicted to persist over much of the southern Maritime Continent in Week 2 (2 – 8 December).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent, apart from the southern region, and southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (25 November – 8 December).

A weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) during mid-November. Most models predict this MJO signal to strengthen and propagate across the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3), and then during the forecast period, propagate through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.