ICAP (International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction) is an international forum for aerosol forecast centres, remote sensing data providers and lead system developers to share best practices and discuss pressing issues facing the operational aerosol community. The ICAP multi-model ensemble (ICAP-MME) is constructed from the following aerosol forecast systems: ECMWF CAMS, JMA MASINGAR, NASA GEOS-5, NRL NAAPS, NOAA NGAC, Météo‐France MOCAGE and FMI SILAM.

The model forecasts shown are up to 48 hours and at 6-hourly intervals. The ensemble mean (top) and standard deviation (bottom) products have been derived from the WMO RSMC-VFSP multi-model ensemble (left) and the ICAP-MME (right). Some of the model members are common between the two ensembles. The ICAP-MME fine-mode AOD is used as a proxy for smoke and may include fine-mode aerosol contribution from anthropogenic sources.