Forecasts

Multi-Model Ensemble

Ensemble forecasts of smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface particulate matter concentrations from a combination of models.

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The model forecasts shown are up to 48 hours ahead and at 3-hourly intervals. To produce the multi-model ensemble, the outputs from individual model members are combined using a common grid at a resolution of 0.5° x 0.5° and a geographical domain covering the major burning areas and smoke transport pathways in Southeast Asia. A multi-model ensemble may improve forecasts when compared to using a single model.

The individual model members have different characteristics (e.g. global or regional model, horizontal/vertical resolution, smoke emissions derivation, physics and chemistry parameterisations, inclusion of data assimilation and feedback to the weather model). Information on the individual models may be found on their websites and in the literature.