02 SEP 2019
ASEANCOF
Thirteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-13)
Date: 18 NOV 2019 - 21 NOV 2019
Venue: Century Park Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand
The upcoming 13th Session of the Forum is a collaboration between the ASMC and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). The Forum aims to generate consensus rainfall and temperature outlooks for the December 2019 - February 2020 boreal winter monsoon season. The consensus will be provided alongside related information on weather and climate drivers in the Southeast Asia region such as the El Niño/La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole, and monsoons circulation. The Forum will be preceded by a pre-COF workshop session to train and update NMHS participants on the fundamental and critical topics of ensemble prediction system, probabilistic prediction, and forecast verification.
Theme: The proposal for ASEANCOF-13 involves collaboration with the WMO DeRisk project and a review of seasonal forecasting good practices. The DeRisk project aims to tailor the climate information and seasonal forecast for specific agriculture in South East Asia. This climate service is one of WMO-GFCS (Global Frameworks for Climate Services) recommendation focuses on improving co-production, tailoring, delivery and use of science-based seasonal forecast and services. Therefore, the theme proposed for ASEANCOF-13 is on agriculture and food security areas and, with DeRisk, to support decision making on country level (National Frameworks for Climate Services).
The program will demonstrate the integration of climate and agriculture information for agricultural planning. The program will be also included with disaster risk management to make a suitable crop planning leads to improving crop yields and crop prediction under current climate conditions. This information should be useful for farmers in decision-making.
The end-user representatives from the agriculture sector will be invited to discuss and give their perspective of this climate services. The benefits and requirements of the products proposed are to be explored. During the pre-COF, there will be a review of seasonal forecasting principles and practices hosted by trainers from the UK Met Office. Since the first ASEANCOF in 2013, ASEAN NMHSs have advanced their seasonal products. However, it is also vital to revisit and review good practices, to make sure the highest quality seasonal products are being used in the region. Topics expected to be covered include ensemble spread, tercile forecasts, and assessing skill.
Participation: All ASEAN NMHSs, as well as WMO, GPCs, international experts, and other end users through invitation. User representatives from the water, agricultural and related disaster risk management sectors are also proposed to be invited from the ASEAN member countries.
OUTLINE OF ASEANCOF-13/PRE-COF TRAINING WORKSHOP
First two days (18-19Nov 2019): PRE-COF (NMHSs)
Day 1 and Day 2 Seasonal Outlooks Training Workshop
- UK Met Office
Last two days (20-21 Nov 2019): ASEANCOF
Day 3 ASEANCOF-13 Meeting
- Opening science talk on monitoring/predictability of extremes.
- Regional outlook (DJF 2019-20) from Global Producing Centres/International Climate Centres.
- National outlook (DJF 2019-20) from ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological (NMHSs).
- Draft outlook and consensus-building.
- Presentation of Consensus Outlook.
Day 4(AM) – End User Talks and DeRisk
- End-user talks on requirements for seasonal forecasts applications/for monitoring of extremes.
- Introduction to the DeRisk project and way forward
Day 4(PM) – TMD visit
- Visit to Thai Meteorological Department (TMD)
View ASEANCOF-13 Programme Final [PDF, 0.348 MB]
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