31 DEC 2022
ASEANCOF
Summary of the Nineteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (Online, MSS)
Introduction
The 19th Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-19) was coordinated by Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) and held online over four days in November 2022, culminating in a final webinar on 25 November with open registration. The virtual format enabled a larger audience to attend, with a total of 80 participants from the ASEAN Member States National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS), experts and representatives from agriculture-related climate services attending the meeting over the various days.
Participants from NMHSs, WMO-RAP, ASMC, the ASEANCOF Working Group, and end-users on the last day of ASEANCOF-19.
Consensus: Rainfall
The consensus for December-January-February (DJF) 2022/2023 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions in the Southeast Asia region. In particular, ASEANCOF considered the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.
ASEANCOF-19 agreed that for the upcoming boreal (Northern Hemisphere) winter season (DJF 2023), a mix of below to above normal rainfall is predicted over the Maritime Continent. In particular, near to above normal rainfall is most likely over much of the Philippines and Brunei Darussalam, while near normal rainfall is most likely over much of Malaysia and Singapore. Over Mainland Southeast Asia, below normal rainfall is most likely over northern parts, including northern Myanmar as well as northern Viet Nam. Above normal rainfall is most likely over southern and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, including southern Thailand, parts of Cambodia, and southern Viet Nam. Elsewhere, near normal rainfall is predicted.
Consensus maps for probabilistic outlook on rainfall and temperature for DJF 2022/2023
Consensus: Temperature
On temperature, ASEANCOF-19 agreed that a mix of below- to above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region. Above normal temperature is most likely over parts of Myanmar, northwestern Viet Nam and the eastern Maritime Continent, while below to near normal temperature is most likely over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, near or near to above normal temperature is predicted.
Theme of ASEANCOF-19
The theme of ASEANCOF-19 was climate services for the agriculture sector in Southeast Asia. The first three days covered the development of the consensus outlook, including sharing from NMHSs and experts, updates from the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, as well as introduction to the introduced the Forecast Customization System (FOCUS) by RIMES).
The fourth and last day focused on climate services for the agriculture sector in Southeast Asia and was held as a webinar. PAGASA lead Managing Risk and Uncertainties (MARITIES) - an interactive game they developed to provide a better understanding of forecast uncertainties and simulate decisions based on uncertainties in seasonal forecast for the agriculture sector. This was followed by a series of presentations were given by NMHS representatives and representatives from the agriculture sector. Throughout the webinar, both the presenters and the audience highlighted key challenges and opportunities related to climate services for the agriculture sector in SEA.
Snapshot of the MARTITIES game (led by PAGASA) to demonstrate forecast uncertainties and simulate decisions based on uncertainties in seasonal forecast for the agriculture sector.
The ASEANCOF Consensus Statement for DJF 2022/2023 can be found here.