Event

01 JUL 2019

S2S, Workshops

Third Workshop on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction for Southeast Asia (S2S-SEA III)

Date: 22 JUL 2019 - 26 JUL 2019

Venue: Furama City Centre, Singapore

Objectives of S2S-SEA 

A S2S Multi-model Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) database was set up to host the model outputs from the WMO’s Global Producing Centres (GPCs), which consist of ensembles of subseasonal forecasts up to 60 days. The MEPS is accessible from ECMWF database, through an alternative site on the IRI Data Library and on a site hosted by CMA. The MEPS provides an extensive set of reforecasts (hindcasts) dataset from a number of modelling centres. At the moment, the forecast products lag behind by 3 weeks and hence cannot yet be used operationally.

However, access to the reforecasts dataset would allow operational centres to preview and assess their potential benefits and limitations ahead of real-time products’ being made operational. In preparing for the eventual release of operational products through either the WMOLC planned in 2020 or the pilot project for release of real-time forecast data, this Capability Building Programme in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction for Southeast Asia (S2S-SEA) aims to:

• Familiarise the participants with the MEPS database
• Improve regional understanding on the mechanisms of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability
• Equip the participants with the knowledge to investigate the skill and usefulness of the subseasonal forecasts in applications
• Provide training to participants in generating products tailored for risk- and impact-based predictions on the S2S timescale
  S2S-SEA Programme 

S2S-SEA Programme

The programme is spread over 4 years (2017-2020), split into 2 phases and with 2 workshops in each phase. Activities in Phase 1 (S2S-SEA I and II, 2017-18) focused on familiarisation of the S2S concept and database, as well as extensive skill assessment of the models available on the database. Activities in Phase 2 (S2S-SEA III and IV, 2019-20) will focus on training in developing products for risk- and impact-based predictions on the S2S timescale. As the operational, near real-time forecast information from S2S database is estimated to be available at the earliest around 2020 on the WMO LC LRFMME platform (Park, et al., 2016), the proposed schedule of the programme is timely.

Third S2S-SEA Workshop (S2S-SEA III)

Meteorological Service Singapore as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) will be organising a 5-day workshop on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction for Southeast Asia (S2S-SEA III) from 22 to 26 July 2019. This workshop is supported by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Project and is part of a 4-year series of workshops. The previous two workshops were held in March 2017 and August 2018. The workshop is part of the multi-year S2S-SEA Capability Building Programme proposed by ASMC to enhance regional capacity and collaboration in this area among the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). To ensure continuity, it is highly encouraged that, as far as possible, the participants identified by NMHSs for the third workshop have been involved in the first and/or second workshop and are able to commit as well to the fourth workshop.

1. Models and Tools: The first set of activities for S2S-SEA III proposed is to briefly recap those from the preceding workshops, covering (a) the concepts of S2S predictions and the S2S database to the participants, (b) the tools available to download the data and process them for analyses, and (c) the use of PyCPT through Jupyter notebook for processing of S2S data. Jupyter notebook with PyCPT will be used as the main tool for model data processing and extracting indices of interest. With the workshop training on PyCPT, NMHSs can utilise the tool to develop products. Continuous support and updates of PyCPT would ensure the quality and relevance of these products.
2. Probabilistic Predictions: The second set of activities introduces probabilistic forecast to the participants and the assess model performance. The forecast to use is from ECMWF. Skill assessment will be done over the hindcast period of models with the option of additional case-studies type of analyses. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite precipitation observation data will continue be used for verification due to its use in Phase 1 of the workshop. With the current progress of Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) calibration to match the past TRMM data dated to be ready in July 2019, there is possibility for a longer period for verification and case studies comparison. Additional types of observation data would also be introduced to the participants.
3. Case Studies: Apart from hindcast data being used for model assessment, forecast data will be used for specific case studies. Analyses of case-studies with forecast results by NMHSs participants with input from end users will demonstrate the performance and usefulness of S2S predictions. Discussion with end-users on the use of the forecast results at various lead-times will drawing expectations and requirements from both NMHSs and end-users, and contribute to product development in the final workshop.
4. End-user Interactions: S2S-SEA III activities also focus on increasing of NMHSs-end user interactions to help with product development. The index/indices to be used for a product is considered by its/their usefulness in important user-applications to the region, e.g. agriculture and water resources. Based on requirements understood so far (from past ASEANCOF and other regional activities), a potentially useful focus for Southeast Asia is on extreme rainfall indices and probabilistic forecast. However, the lack of resources for more R&D on S2S predictions at national/regional levels was identified in previous workshops. End-users will be invited to provide an avenue to interact with NMHSs and to share on the challenges and their needs. Group discussions will be set up to allow for more in depth interactions. To maximise the resources available, co-development of products between the NMHSs and end-users is encouraged to allow for targeted products based on end-users’ needs. With end users more likely to take up the products developed through co-development, it builds up the community’s confidence in S2S predictions.

On the final day of the workshop, participants will present their results to consolidate the workshop outcomes. A meeting summary will be produced documenting the results and combining the outcomes of the workshop, focusing on the challenges faced in development of S2S products as well as those of the higher potential which can be further developed in S2S-SEA IV.

Participation

Each of the 10 ASEAN NMHSs will be represented by up to 2 participants (meteorologists or research scientists) who are actively involved in the operational/research activities of their centres related to seasonal and subseasonal timescales. The meeting will be facilitated by 3 to 4 experts from the S2S project or other research institutes who will facilitate lectures and hands-on training sessions in collaboration with ASMC. Four end users from the disaster-risk management, water, health and agriculture will be invited.

Proposed Structure for the Third S2S-SEA Workshop

Acknowledgement

MSS would like to thank WMO for their support and for providing the funds for the participation of the experts at the First and Second Workshop, and UNESCAP for their support and co-sponsoring the funds for the NMHSs participants at the Second Workshop. MSS also would like to express its appreciation to Dr. Vitart from ECMWF, and Dr. Robertson and Dr. Muñoz from IRI Columbia University, for their guidance and contributions and also to all the participants for their active participation and constructive feedback.

References